Free NFL picks (overall, I was 7-4: (64%)

Jets (+5.5) over BILLS:  The Bills just aren’t good enough to be a 6 point favorite against average NFL teams.  This line should be 3.  The Jets are great against the run, and that’s the key part of the Bills offense. 

Correct

BENGALS (+8) over Jaguars.  Nobody goes winless in the NFL (except maybe the lions), and the Jags really aren’t that good.  The Bengals are horrible but they’re at home, and they’ve got to catch a break one of these weeks.  I think you’ll see the score go across the screen Sunday saying Bengals 14 Jags 3 in the second quarter, and everyone will be shocked.  If that happens, they’ll have covered already.  That being said, the Jags could also win by 28.

Correct

Lions (+13.5) over BEARS.  The Bears have the NFC North wrapped up, and this could easily be a letdown game against a miserable Lions team.  Dan Freaking Orlovsky.  But 14 points is just too big, they Bears win by 7 or 10 and don’t cover.  They Bears offense can’t really put up 40+ points, so if the Lions get a couple scores they should cover.

Correct

Baltimore (+3) over CLEVELAND.  I really like the underdogs this week.  The Browns worked the Jags last week, but I think this just shows that anyone can have a good week, and that the Jags suck.  Doesn’t everyone remember how awful the Browns have looked for most of the year?  The Ravens aren’t that bad, Flacco actually looks pretty good, and I think the Ravens win this one outright.

Correct

CHIEFS (+9) over Tampa Bay.  I’d like to see a spit-off between LJ and Bill Romanowski.  Johnson’s really looking like a world-class jerk these days, and he’s going to be out of the league Maurice Clarett style if he’s not careful.  The Bucs are okay, but they really couldn’t handle the Dallas blitz last week and couldn’t even score a touchdown.  I think it’s going to be too tough for them to cover 10 points, in a road game at Arrowhead stadium in November (when the Chiefs have an unbelievable record).  The Chiefs keep it close somehow, even though they’re horrible.

Correct

VIKINGS (-5) over Houston.  Houston is awful, and the Vikings are at home.  Both of their Jenny Craig DTs named Williams should play, so the Texans will be completely one dimensional throwing the ball.  I think Adrian Peterson’s due for a huge, 175 yard, 3 TD game.

Correct

TiTANS (-4.5) over Packers.  Why only 4.5 points?  The Titans were only favored by 4 last week against the Colts and crushed them.  I’m going to keep taking the Titans until their lines get up to 9 or 10.  The Packers are average and the Titans are the best team in the league, meaning they should win by 10 or 14.

Incorrect

RAMS (+3) over Cardinals.  Arizona is not nearly as good a team on the road, and the Rams have been playing really hard recently.  Nobody likes betting the Rams because they suck, but I think they at least cover and probably win this game.  They’re at home, afterall.  Home underdogs are historically one of the best bets there is, and I’ll take one against an inconsistent team like the Cardinals any day.

Incorrect

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Dolphins.  The Broncos are pretty tough at home, and the Dolphins have only really looked great once (over New England).  This line is saying that these two teams are equally good, and I think Denver is slightly better, and they’re at home.  Their defense will bounce back after the bye and stop noodle-armed Chad Pennington, at least enough to cover this low spread.

Incorrect

RAIDERS (+3) over Falcons.  These two teams are equally crappy, and the Raiders are at home.  So why are they getting 3 points?  I don’t know, so I’m taking the raiders.  If they Falcons win by 30, then I guess someonen in Vegas did know.

Incorrect

GIANTS (-9) over Cowboys.  The Cowboys look horrible right now, and they’re talking about Brooks Bollinger as their potential starter this week.  That’s when you know things are bad.  The Giants hate the Cowboys, and they’ll be excited to run up the score.

Correct

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